PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Discuss the latest news about cutting edge hair loss research: Tsuji, RepliCel, Follicum, etc.
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Afro_Vacancy
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PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 1 week ago

I have seen many people write that they are holding out for better treatments in the future. Some of the prospects include Tsuji/Riken, CB-0301, setipiprant, SM0454, follica, etc. It's great that better treatments might be on the way, but I want to advise (mostly lurkers) against holding out.

New technologies are guaranteed to be very expensive to start off with -- @That Guy recently posted the non-surprising information that Tsuji's hair cloning treatment will cost US$ ~300,000, which many of us predicted. So even if it comes out in 2021, middle-class people won't get to take advantage until 2031, or whichever year the price has come down enough. Meanwhile, it's hard to predict what's going to work out and what won't. I was duped into thinking that Histogen would provide a cure, because the former guru of hairlosstalk, Hellouser, spoke of their staff like they were gods. I also thought that the Brotzu treatment would be better, but it turns out to be nothing. People thought that setipiprant would help, but anecdotal evidence suggests that it will be mediocre, and come with side effects.

In general, I'd say that waiting for new technologies is incredibly risky, and I recommend not doing that to anybody reading this, lurkers or otherwise. If you are balding:

- Get some blood tests to make sure it's not thyroid issues, iron deficiency, etc, if it is, then resolve that;
- Get on minoxidil and apply once a day, perhaps twice a day in the first few months. Accept that you'll be on it indefinitely. You can save money by ordering Kirkland minoxidil off of Amazon;
- Go on either propecia / proscar at a dose of 0.20 - 1.0 mg/day and pop that pill in the morning, or order rRU 58841 and dissolve it into your minoxidil. If you get side effects such as brain fog or erectile dysfunction, stop;
- Get 1% nizoral shampoo and leave on your hair for ten minutes, once or twice a week.
- Consider micro needling. A micro needler costs $15 or less, also buy some rubbing alcohol to clean it up when you're done, and maybe aloe vera to soothe your skin after. Total cost: $30/year;
- Once the treatments have done their work, about twelve months in, consider booking a hair transplant. You can get a good one in Turkey for ~$4000 which includes the cost of the plane ticket, or with an elite US surgeon for ~US $15,000;

Propecia/RU58841 work by protecting your hair from damage, whereas minoxidil works by stimulating hair growth. The mechanisms are independent, and people do report that the combination has synergistic effects. In both cases, you will at best keep existing hair and revive recently lost hair, but not long-lost hair.

There will likely be better treatments in five years, but we don't know the exact dates at which they will come out, how much they will cost, nor how much better they will be. And regardless, they'll be more effective for you if you've kept as many of your hairs as possible, and in the meantime, you should try and live your life.

I started minoxidil/nizoral/RU58841 in 2015, and I got a hair transplant recently, in 2019. In hindsight? I wish that I had started minoxidil/nizoral/RU58841 in 2007 or so, and gotten the hair transplant in 2016 or so. I would have likely lived a slightly better life.

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Re: PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by That Guy » 1 week ago

I'll copy paste what Rho Gain said to me on HairLossTalk
People assume that all men care about their hair. They don't. The research says so, the sales say so.

But how can this be? Because most bald men are old, while most bald men on forums are the unfortunate minority that started losing their hair young. I bet the median age of a forum member is 23, while the median age of a thinning man is in the late 30's. That's why bald men don't care - most of them lost their hair late in life, long after it matters. Most of us, however, started losing our hair about a decade or more before them, and so we assume it matters just as much to older bald men as it does to us. It doesn't. They're married. They have kids. They have a career. They have a mortgage. Hair is very, very low on their list of fucks to give.

Given this reality, the market for this treatment at that price point is absolutely miniscule. How many high net worth individuals WHO ARE ALSO BALD and ALSO CARE about being bald AND ALSO WILL TRAVEL TO JAPAN could there possibly be? Because that's your market, bald (mostly young) men whose net worth is north of $10m liquid. How many of you reading this could write a $400,000 check right now that wouldn't bounce? And if you could, would you do it just to get your hair back, even if it represented every penny you've ever made?

They have nothing. This is Japanese face-saving.
Now, I think his last line is incorrect, but the rest of his post is spot-on.

The majority of forum hairloss sufferers are men and women in their early to mid 20s, unmarried, no kids, etc. The sane among us want hair to help us achieve that goal and personal satisfaction.

We are also all mostly of the generation who are in debt, may never even own our own homes, etc. The amount of 20-somethings with money 400k+ in spare change kicking around is ostensibly 0%.

I have to say that while I had not doubt it'd be expensive, I think even this is excessive.

It cannot be said clearer to the lurkers: You are not getting Tsuji'd anytime soon

Like @Afro_Vacancy says: Get on the drugs, look into a transplant or a piece, and keep your eye on the future treatments that you might actually be able to afford.

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Re: PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by nameless » 1 week ago

Question for Rho Gain -

if the cost of the treatment is $300,000 at the most why would I need $10 million to purchase the treatment?
Last edited by nameless 4 days ago, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by rclark » 1 week ago

It's really pathetic that Histogen hasn't come out with anything. They sent me a text two years later saying
they were still trying to get FDA approval. This was in 2018. I asked in 2016.

They would be better off marketing it for a couple million dollars, and nobody would get it.

That said, Follicel doesn't seem to have anything except a stupid software application that can
used on people's phones.

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Re: PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 1 week ago

rclark wrote:
1 week ago
It's really pathetic that Histogen hasn't come out with anything. They sent me a text two years later saying
they were still trying to get FDA approval. This was in 2018. I asked in 2016.

They would be better off marketing it for a couple million dollars, and nobody would get it.

That said, Follicel doesn't seem to have anything except a stupid software application that can
used on people's phones.
Histogen and setipirant were the two most hyped treatments when I joined HairLossTalk.

From the two, we might end up with a mediocre treatment from Setipiprant.

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Re: PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by kj6723 » 1 week ago

I’m holding out until 2016 for Brotzu

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Re: PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by Johnson » 6 days ago

I may get some hate for saying this but to add on to that: I think everyone should shave their shave their hair just once.

You never know if it will suit you and I think there is a proportion of men (albeit in the minority) who look just as good, and occasionally better, with a shaved head.

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Re: PSA: For anyone holding out for future treatments, don't wait

Post by nameless » 4 days ago

Afro_Vacancy wrote:
1 week ago
I have seen many people write that they are holding out for better treatments in the future. Some of the prospects include Tsuji/Riken, CB-0301, setipiprant, SM0454, follica, etc. It's great that better treatments might be on the way, but I want to advise (mostly lurkers) against holding out.

New technologies are guaranteed to be very expensive to start off with -- @That Guy recently posted the non-surprising information that Tsuji's hair cloning treatment will cost US$ ~300,000, which many of us predicted. So even if it comes out in 2021, middle-class people won't get to take advantage until 2031, or whichever year the price has come down enough. Meanwhile, it's hard to predict what's going to work out and what won't. I was duped into thinking that Histogen would provide a cure, because the former guru of hairlosstalk, Hellouser, spoke of their staff like they were gods. I also thought that the Brotzu treatment would be better, but it turns out to be nothing. People thought that setipiprant would help, but anecdotal evidence suggests that it will be mediocre, and come with side effects.

In general, I'd say that waiting for new technologies is incredibly risky, and I recommend not doing that to anybody reading this, lurkers or otherwise. If you are balding:

- Get some blood tests to make sure it's not thyroid issues, iron deficiency, etc, if it is, then resolve that;
- Get on minoxidil and apply once a day, perhaps twice a day in the first few months. Accept that you'll be on it indefinitely. You can save money by ordering Kirkland minoxidil off of Amazon;
- Go on either propecia / proscar at a dose of 0.20 - 1.0 mg/day and pop that pill in the morning, or order rRU 58841 and dissolve it into your minoxidil. If you get side effects such as brain fog or erectile dysfunction, stop;
- Get 1% nizoral shampoo and leave on your hair for ten minutes, once or twice a week.
- Consider micro needling. A micro needler costs $15 or less, also buy some rubbing alcohol to clean it up when you're done, and maybe aloe vera to soothe your skin after. Total cost: $30/year;
- Once the treatments have done their work, about twelve months in, consider booking a hair transplant. You can get a good one in Turkey for ~$4000 which includes the cost of the plane ticket, or with an elite US surgeon for ~US $15,000;

Propecia/RU58841 work by protecting your hair from damage, whereas minoxidil works by stimulating hair growth. The mechanisms are independent, and people do report that the combination has synergistic effects. In both cases, you will at best keep existing hair and revive recently lost hair, but not long-lost hair.

There will likely be better treatments in five years, but we don't know the exact dates at which they will come out, how much they will cost, nor how much better they will be. And regardless, they'll be more effective for you if you've kept as many of your hairs as possible, and in the meantime, you should try and live your life.

I started minoxidil/nizoral/RU58841 in 2015, and I got a hair transplant recently, in 2019. In hindsight? I wish that I had started minoxidil/nizoral/RU58841 in 2007 or so, and gotten the hair transplant in 2016 or so. I would have likely lived a slightly better life.
You make some good points, especially your point that getting available treatment(s) now won't prevent a person from getting new treatments when they do come to market. That's not necessarily 100% true but it's mostly true and it's a key point. But for me, right now, I think it's best not to waste money, good follicles, or time/focus on a transplant when revolutionary new treatments are coming in 1 - 3 years.

Also, I can't get what I want (a full head of hair) via standard hair transplant even temporarily because hairs in my donor region are partially miniaturized. I'm not sure but I think it's best for me to wait for these new treatments that will yield unlimited terminal donor hairs for implantation. That having been said your point that we could still get new treatments when they come out even if we get available treatments now is a very persuasive point so I'm not ruling it out completely just yet. I'll contemplate all of this for a little while and make a decision.

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