Fake news in the EU elections

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That Guy
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Fake news in the EU elections

Post by That Guy » 4 months ago

So, I've been following the EU elections, and today (my time) would have been the vote for the UK and The Netherlands. Now, the votes aren't all going to be tallied up and announced until Sunday, after all the countries have voted, but I'm already seeing leftist headlines that proclaiming victories.

For example:

https://www.euronews.com/2019/05/23/bri ... ions-votes

They claim that, in the Netherlands, the Dutch Labour has won a "surprise victory" over the populists. However, this is all based on a single exit poll.

So, I looked up this exit poll.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-nl/exit-poll-d ... t-election

They will have surveyed an approximate 55,000 people in a country of 12.5 million.

Their data is based on 35 polling stations out of 9,300

They assure us that such a small sample size isn't a big deal because:

"That is why a statistical analysis model offers a solution. By analysing the voting history of the polling stations, we can still arrive at a very accurate indication of the election results – despite the limited sample. The core of our analysis model is the comparison with the previous elections. For each polling station we know what people voted in the previous elections. By comparing the results of the exit poll with these results we can determine what the trend is."

No, you can't.

If the voting history of a polling station matches up with what they voted now, all that it means is that those regions still adhere to their usual politics. What you might notice is that IPSOS has failed to mention which polling station they polled. That would be very enlightening information.

This is a tactic they also used in the 2016 USA election, where many outlets claimed that Trump was absolutely defeated because "the polls said so" based on polling data that was obviously taken from the coastal states, which are leftist strongholds.

So why do I think they're announcing a leftist "victory" in the Netherlands (even though the populists have been poised to win) based on this shoddy exit poll? Russia. They are already saying that the "far right" in Europe is all Russia's fault, and they recently created a fake scandal in Austria about "Russian collusion".

So step 1.

1. You get some polling data (or just fabricate it) that forecasts a decisive leftist victory. You know that most people aren't going to bother actually looking into your claims.

2. In the even of the populist victory, you blame the whole thing on Russian hackers. "The polls showed X was more popular!!!"

3. Spend the new government's term tying up goverment time and money with endless "investigations" to impede advancement of the new agenda.

Now, there is a possibility of course that the labour party really did dominate — though it's doubtful to me that Thierry Baudet could win so big across the nation like he did just two months ago and his supporters would suddenly all vote for his complete opposites. That just doesn't make any sense.

https://news.yahoo.com/dutch-lead-popul ... 59974.html

But mark my words, if on Sunday the Dutch populists did beat out the labour party, the first thing they will do is blame Russia.

EDIT:

Oh look, more "muh Russia"

https://www.focus.de/politik/deutschlan ... 51496.html

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Re: Fake news in the EU elections

Post by C4L » 4 months ago

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Re: Fake news in the EU elections

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C4L wrote:
4 months ago
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Re: Fake news in the EU elections

Post by That Guy » 4 months ago

Juncker denounces "stupid" nationalists because "they are in love with their own country."

How fucking dare they!? How dare they have the balls to love their own country!?!?!" Literal nazis!!!"



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Re: Fake news in the EU elections

Post by blackg » 4 months ago

That Guy wrote:
4 months ago
Juncker denounces "stupid" nationalists because "they are in love with their own country."

How fucking dare they!? How dare they have the balls to love their own country!?!?!" Literal nazis!!!"



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