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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by yettee » 2 months ago

Afro_Vacancy wrote:
2 months ago
Charles has two children. You meet one of the children, and it's a boy. What is the probability that the other child is a boy?

For the answer, highlight the text below.
I have to say, if I understand the question and answer correctly... I dont agree with the answer. The chance that child 2 is a boy is 50% regardless of the sex of child one. If the question said something like, Charles is inclined to introduce a boy first, then your answer might be right. But it doesnt say that. If child 1, the boy, that Charles introduces is randomly chosen then child 2 is 50% boy or girl.
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by pjhair » 2 months ago

Afro_Vacancy wrote:
2 months ago
Hey guys, I wonder how many of you can solve this probability problem. Please don't answer the question if you've seen it before.

Charles has two children. You meet one of the children, and it's a boy. What is the probability that the other child is a boy?

For the answer, highlight the text below.
This problem reminds me of the famous monty hall problem. Anyway, the probability that the second child is a boy is 1/3. I am making the assumption that the probability that any random child is a boy is 50%.
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 2 months ago

yettee wrote:
2 months ago
I have to say, if I understand the question and answer correctly... I dont agree with the answer. The chance that child 2 is a boy is 50% regardless of the sex of child one. If the question said something like, Charles is inclined to introduce a boy first, then your answer might be right. But it doesnt say that. If child 1, the boy, that Charles introduces is randomly chosen then child 2 is 50% boy or girl.
Please write the answer in white font.

Write out the probability tree. You start out with four equal possibilities for two children:
Boy-boy
boy-girl
girl-boy
girl-girl

Once you specify that at least one of the children is a boy, without specifying if it's the first or second child, you are left with three probabilities. In those three, oh shit lol, I wrote it out wrong. It's actually 1/3, not 2/3.

Read more here:
https://math.stackexchange.com/question ... y-that-the


Added in 1 minute 13 seconds:
pjhair wrote:
2 months ago
This problem reminds me of the famous monty hall problem. Anyway, the probability that the second child is a boy is 1/3. I am making the assumption that the probability that any random child is a boy is 50%.
Correct !
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Rudiger » 2 months ago

pjhair wrote:
2 months ago
This problem reminds me of the famous monty hall problem. Anyway, the probability that the second child is a boy is 1/3. I am making the assumption that the probability that any random child is a boy is 50%.
To me- the probability that their second child is a boy is 1/3, but the probability that the other child, separating from the context of the family tree, is 1/2. I think the probability table doesn't need to be explained to anyone, it's coming down to semantics and the wording of the question.

I have 2 cars, they are both either petrol or diesel. You see that my first one is petrol, what is the probability the 2nd one is diesel? To me that's 50/50, it's unrelated to the first car, though I can see it the other way as well.
.
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 2 months ago

One more nerd puzzle. I have not been able to figure it out. I have asked a few intelligent people and none of them has been able to figure it out. It's a "challenge problem" on a test by a firm that hires people to work in finance.

A company has a competition to win a car. Each contestant needs to pick a positive integer. If there’s at least one unique choice, the person who made the smallest unique choice wins the car. If there are no unique choices, the company keeps the car and there’s no repeat of the competition. It turns out that there are only three contestants, and you’re one of them. Everyone knows before picking their numbers that there are only three contestants. How should you make your choice?

Edited to add, Turns out the answer is available here:
https://math.stackexchange.com/question ... s-question
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by yettee » 2 months ago

Rudiger wrote:
2 months ago
o me- the probability
I agree with Rudiger... depends on the wording of the question, the petrol 50/50 example is correct.

and I've googled it, many sites say the same:


"Gardner initially gave the answers
1/2
and
1/3
, respectively, but later acknowledged that the second question was ambiguous.[3] Its answer could be
1/2
, depending on what more information is available beyond that you found out just that one child was a boy. The ambiguity, depending on the exact wording and possible assumptions, was confirmed by Bar-Hillel and Falk,[4] and Nickerson.[5]"

The paradox occurs when it is not known how the statement "at least one is a boy" was generated. Either answer could be correct, based on what is assumed."
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by pjhair » 2 months ago

Rudiger wrote:
2 months ago
I have 2 cars, they are both either petrol or diesel. You see that my first one is petrol, what is the probability the 2nd one is diesel? To me that's 50/50, it's unrelated to the first car, though I can see it the other way as well.
Here is how I will approach this problem.

Lets assume that the probability that any random car is petrol is 50%. With no information, your two cars will then have the following possible sample space:

{ (p,p) , (p,d), (d,p), (d,d)}

p represents petrol and d represents diesel in the above set. If I see that your first car is petrol then the sample space is reduced to the following:
{ (p,p), (p,d),(d,p)}

In above sample space, the probability that both cars are petrol is 1/3.
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 2 months ago

More nerd talk, this article was in The American Conservative
https://www.theamericanconservative.com ... -over-a-b/

The anecdote, that a woman cried due to a poor grade, is believable and common. It hints at a lot of problems, such as millennials not being able to handle criticism, thinking that crying will solve problems, etc. I do appreciate the author at least acknowledging that today's college students have it harder than their parents did.

I did attend a talk on grade anxiety a while back and several people were suggesting that grades simply be abandoned and be replaced by a pass/fail system. I didn't agree in general, though it may be helpful for electives or smaller courses to be pass/fail, I don't know.

In general, I think that the issue is actually too much grade inflation. The reason that a "B" appears catastrophic is largely due to large numbers of people getting GPAs of 3.90+/4.00. Which is absurd. I remember one girl crying because she had like a 70 on a midterm, and she thought that this meant that she would not get into medical school. Well, she wasn't completely wrong, it's extremely hard to get into medical school, a couple bad grades and you're gone. But I think that this would no longer be true if they lowered the average grade by a lot. Just make things harder.

That will also provide better resolution. As an example, think of skiing. You might not be able to distinguish expert skiers from intermediate skiers if you watch them go down the bunny slopes. However, if you watch them go down a couple of black diamond slopes, you'll be able to rank them much more precisely.

Unfortunately, this won't happen. For it to happen, it would have to be implemented universally, which is more or less impossible.
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Exodus » 2 months ago

@JLBB how did That Guy sound like an "embarassing pseudointellectual" when talking about music?

Also you should respond to what my music playing friend said. I posted it in italics near That Guy's post.

I actually disagree with him on blacks having not contributed to music. They obviously have and disportionately so, but to argue that they have contributed the most or more than whites is laughable. As I said earlier I like black music myself besides rap (even then i like some rap). However it's never going to be legendary status like white music is because theres no elegance or epicness. Theres also no progression or experimentation. Black music is too focused on rhthym which is nice and all in the moment but isnt what makes musc memorable. All the most famous music, the 5th symphony, the birthday song, greensleeves, ave maria, etc the sonfs everyone knows are never made by blacks. Its because they have good melodies, not rhthyms. Melodies are the basis of music and what makes them memorable. On top of that rap samples heavily, and notably samples a lot of white music

Lyrics are another weak spot for black music. Its always sex, bragging, drugs, or romance. You never hear weird or different or deeper topics like white people sing about. You won't have aspie weird lyrics like gary numan or kraftwerk or psychological or historical or political stuff like radiohead or rage against the machine among blacks. Yes theres stuff like kendrick lamar or NWA but id class that as more just their personal issues in political form. Blacks cant abstract themselves away from hood situations and sing or rap about other stuff.

Another thing I dislike is how in their love music it so often has to get sexual. White love songs can just talk about the feelings themselves without turning it vulgar. Which theres nothing wrong with but when 90 % of the time you get vulgar it just gets tiring and unoriginal lol.

All of this is referring to mainly rap and R&B. Jazz is definitely very good though, i cant deny that. It has the melody issue though. It focuses too much rhthym and not enough on melody.

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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 2 months ago

Exodus wrote:
2 months ago
They obviously have and disportionately so, but to argue that they have contributed the most or more than whites is laughable.
Nobody wrote that.
Exodus wrote:
2 months ago
They obviously have and disportionately so, but to argue that they have contributed the most or more than whites is laughable.
Nobody wrote that.

Edited to add: I'm not really interested in precisely quantifying things. That strikes me as impossible, and thus a waste of time. Among other issues, there's no obvious way to weigh relative contributions from different eras.

What he had said a few months back was that all good art comes from White people. I found that ridiculous, and I used the example of music to counter argue, I picked a specific art form as it seemed like an easy win: African Americans have contributed a huge amount in the past ~150 years. I was obviously referring to African Americans, and not to vuvuzela users. They've done a lot. Have they contributed more than "white people"? I don't think so, to the best that I can estimate it, though in that period they have probably contributed more than White Americans.

This also doesn't necessarily mean that Africans have a genetic advantage for the construction of rhythms. First, African Americans are mixed race, they're not really "African". There is an estimate that some ~20% of their X-chromosomes are actually associated with European ancestry (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4289685/, Table 1), I don't know about the other chromosomes, and further, they didn't randomly and evenly sample the parent African population, and a few hundred years is plenty of time for epigenetic variations. Regardless, a simpler explanation is that they developed a lot of music because they had an oral culture, due to not being allowed to learn to read and write. Conversely, White Americans, both Jewish and non-Jewish, have contributed disproportionately to other art forms, such as filmmaking. I suspect that a lot of the movies that we watch now will be like the Greek classics in a thousand years.

Similarly, I know this White woman with dyslexia, and guess what, she is a fabulous listener, and an excellent and passionate musician. The human brain is splendidly adaptive that way.

Never mind that this was only music, if I go to "art" overall the contributions from other cultures become overwhelming. Food is the most obvious one: we are richer due to being able to eat Peruvian, Mexican, Ethiopian, Thai, etc food. Most European food makes heavy use of grains and plants that were actually developed by native Americans (potato, tomato, corn, etc, more here: http://www.aihd.ku.edu/foods/western_hemisphere.html). As we speak I am having a coffee, a drink developed by Arabs. On filmmaking, there are fabulous movies that come out of Korea, Japan, India, Israel, etc -- I really should watch more.

Lots of cultures have done very well in the arts. This includes western/European culture obviously, but several other cultures have done very well as well. I can't see any credible person dismissing that.

Where western culture distinguishes itself immensely, to the best of my knowledge, is in the development of mathematics, science, and philosophy in the past 500 or so years, which are ironically things that That Guy dismisses lol, and ironically areas where Jews have contributed a lot. I often wonder if humanity will ever achieve a level of abstract innovation as high as that in the period 1900-1930, when general relativity and quantum mechanics were developed, largely by British and German people, where the second group was largely Jewish. But in the past hundred or so years we've also developed telecommunications, the combustion engine, flight, computers, genetics, evolution, psychology, vaccinations, etc.

There's a lot that needs to go right in a culture for genuine innovation to happen. It's not fully understood, but if I were to study sociology that is maybe what I would study. As we speak, China is rapidly catching up to the USA in science and technology. They have the demonstrated ability to copy other innovations. It remains to be seen if their society will be able to spur innovation, people debate that, and in my opinion, the answer is unknown at this time.

But I also worry about the USA's long-term potential for continued scientific and technological innovation. There are several emerging obstacles.
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Exodus » 2 months ago

Afro_Vacancy wrote:
2 months ago
Nobody wrote that.



Nobody wrote that.

Edited to add: I'm not really interested in precisely quantifying things. That strikes me as impossible, and thus a waste of time. Among other issues, there's no obvious way to weigh relative contributions from different eras.

What he had said a few months back was that all good art comes from White people. I found that ridiculous, and I used the example of music to counter argue, I picked a specific art form as it seemed like an easy win: African Americans have contributed a huge amount in the past ~150 years. I was obviously referring to African Americans, and not to vuvuzela users. They've done a lot. Have they contributed more than "white people"? I don't think so, to the best that I can estimate it, though in that period they have probably contributed more than White Americans.

This also doesn't necessarily mean that Africans have a genetic advantage for the construction of rhythms. First, African Americans are mixed race, they're not really "African". There is an estimate that some ~20% of their X-chromosomes are actually associated with European ancestry (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4289685/, Table 1), I don't know about the other chromosomes, and further, they didn't randomly and evenly sample the parent African population, and a few hundred years is plenty of time for epigenetic variations. Regardless, a simpler explanation is that they developed a lot of music because they had an oral culture, due to not being allowed to learn to read and write. Conversely, White Americans, both Jewish and non-Jewish, have contributed disproportionately to other art forms, such as filmmaking. I suspect that a lot of the movies that we watch now will be like the Greek classics in a thousand years.

Similarly, I know this White woman with dyslexia, and guess what, she is a fabulous listener, and an excellent and passionate musician. The human brain is splendidly adaptive that way.

Never mind that this was only music, if I go to "art" overall the contributions from other cultures become overwhelming. Food is the most obvious one: we are richer due to being able to eat Peruvian, Mexican, Ethiopian, Thai, etc food. Most European food makes heavy use of grains and plants that were actually developed by native Americans (potato, tomato, corn, etc, more here: http://www.aihd.ku.edu/foods/western_hemisphere.html). As we speak I am having a coffee, a drink developed by Arabs. On filmmaking, there are fabulous movies that come out of Korea, Japan, India, Israel, etc -- I really should watch more.

Lots of cultures have done very well in the arts. This includes western/European culture obviously, but several other cultures have done very well as well. I can't see any credible person dismissing that.

Where western culture distinguishes itself immensely, to the best of my knowledge, is in the development of mathematics, science, and philosophy in the past 500 or so years, which are ironically things that That Guy dismisses lol, and ironically areas where Jews have contributed a lot. I often wonder if humanity will ever achieve a level of abstract innovation as high as that in the period 1900-1930, when general relativity and quantum mechanics were developed, largely by British and German people, where the second group was largely Jewish. But in the past hundred or so years we've also developed telecommunications, the combustion engine, flight, computers, genetics, evolution, psychology, vaccinations, etc.

There's a lot that needs to go right in a culture for genuine innovation to happen. It's not fully understood, but if I were to study sociology that is maybe what I would study. As we speak, China is rapidly catching up to the USA in science and technology. They have the demonstrated ability to copy other innovations. It remains to be seen if their society will be able to spur innovation, people debate that, and in my opinion, the answer is unknown at this time.

But I also worry about the USA's long-term potential for continued scientific and technological innovation. There are several emerging obstacles.
Its pretty easy to quantify things, what do you mean. Look at the classics and see where they come from. You know it might go against your woke agenda so you're scared to. This is another case of your lame dismissal.

About white vs black Americans in music in the past 150 years.Rap and R&B arent very good so it basically comes down to rock and metal vs jazz. Both have technical ability. Jazz is impressive and all but again as i said, not enough melody. No truly memorable tunes. Not enough progression. Yes rock was helped founded by blacks but by and large still a mostly white genre with a lot of influence from classical (white genre) .

You and @JLBB also never replied to the comment from my friend that played music. Good more technical breakdown of how most aspects of music came from whites.

As for other kinds of art from other cultures its pretty cringe that you had to resort to food. What?! Food is art now?!

What classic art have come from Korea, the middle east, India or Africa? Lol I also mean more than just a few exceptions. Also are you even into music? Its not really something you can discuss with only book knowledge.

Japan, western europe and African americans have made most good art. You got anime and video games from japan, all the best stuff/staples from western Europe and white america such as classical music and the all time great films and paintings, and African Americans rounding it off with jazz and alot of the best pop like Michael Jackson and Prince.

Ill still give stuff from other cultures a chance (the protector, ip man, and the raid are some movies from southeast asia i like) but these are just some of my basic observations.

These aren't even any particularly difficult to make arguments. What im saying is practically common sense.

Woke crowd really go through some laughably obvious mental gymnastics to justify their egalitarian ideology.

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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 2 months ago

Exodus wrote:
2 months ago
Its pretty easy to quantify things, what do you mean. Look at the classics and see where they come from.
And who makes the list of classics? What happens when somebody else makes a completely different list in ten years?
I looked up the first few lists that I could find, and they all contain contributions from African Americans, but I consider that an irrelevant point. Nobody who knows anything will actually legitimately claim that they can make such a list.
Exodus wrote:
2 months ago
Food is art now?!
Food is art.
Image

Image

Image
Exodus wrote:
2 months ago
What classic art have come from Korea, the middle east, India or Africa?

This is spectacular:
Image
So is this, which I've visited:
Image

But really, I'd like to see @pjhair's description of some of the better Indian art. We might as well learn something.
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Admin » 2 months ago

Afro_Vacancy wrote:
2 months ago
And who makes the list of classics?
The same way any list of classics is determined, the same way market prices are determined:

All of us decide.

I don't want to interject in this debate because I'm a coward.

Seriously though, I don't think it matters, I have plenty of favorites made by white people, black people, grey people, who cares? It's all about the music.

Man that platitude (which yet is the truth).
"Along the way some boys started making fun of him by shouting, “Go away, baldy! Get out of here!” Elisha turned around and stared at the boys. Then he cursed them in the name of the Lord. At once two bears ran out of the woods and ripped to pieces 42 of the boys." - 2 Kings 23-24

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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 2 months ago

Admin wrote:
2 months ago
grey people
Image

What's their music like?
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Re: IoHL Community Coffee Shop

Post by Admin » 2 months ago

Afro_Vacancy wrote:
2 months ago
Image

What's their music like?


In that episode, Morty's dad is stuck in a terrible simulation of the human world designed by aliens.

It's funny, my fiancée always listen to the Top 40 in the car. And sometimes I'm legit like, "we're there! The alien music from Rick and Morty!".

Alright, it's true I know a thing or two about music, so here's my personal classic black music list. I'm SJW Fred tonight.

No but seriously, these are epic:



Dat bass! Dat badass bass!



For the more environmentalist SJW's among us.





"Along the way some boys started making fun of him by shouting, “Go away, baldy! Get out of here!” Elisha turned around and stared at the boys. Then he cursed them in the name of the Lord. At once two bears ran out of the woods and ripped to pieces 42 of the boys." - 2 Kings 23-24

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