China's coronavirus

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China's coronavirus

#25277

Post by rclark » 2 weeks ago

blackg wrote: 2 weeks ago We here in my state of New South Wales have been out of quarantine for a couple of months, though now the number of infections are slowly increasing and we may have to go back to square one.

Is there a lot of crime where you live? If the police are in quarantine?
There is not a lot of crime where I live. Some though, not a lot. There are just small crimes, like a GPS map stolen. Things like that.

That said, the town next to me has a lot more crime.

Added in 1 minute 31 seconds:
Guest-4 wrote: 2 weeks ago I'm fed up with the quarantine, but it's necessary in the USA.

We've had 150,000 deaths and counting. Getting to "herd immunity", even if it were possible, would require at least 2.5 million deaths. That is not going to happen. Trump would suffer the worst defeat in American political history, and that would only be the start.
Do you think he will just walk away quietly?

The number of Republicans voting Democrat is very surprising. It was GOP women who left Trump, and voted Democratic in 2018.

Now the white male vote is going Democratic, because of the Covid19 response. It's very strange. Trump always finds some way
to win though.

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China's coronavirus

#25278

Post by Guest-4 » 2 weeks ago

nameless wrote: 2 weeks ago The problem is that the idiots who won't wear masks and won't social distance will prevent the USA from reducing the disease enough to support the effort to beat the disease. If you look at the countries that are beating the disease it's the countries that brought down the frequency of disease transmission and kept it down by social distancing and wearing masks. It's the MAGA Trumpers. They're helping the disease spread and keeping it powerful in the US with their bullshit.
Everybody who is in close proximity to strangers should be wearing a mask in these conditions.

But I will say that masks alone are not sufficient to explain the different results between different countries. Other factors such as vitamin D3 levels and blood type likely matter as well, and the vaccination history of a country may vary. There is evidence that people who have taken the BCG vaccine have better resistance to the virus.

Government policies matter as well. Look what happened to coronavirus rates in Israel after they reopened schools:

Image

Added in 1 minute 21 seconds:
rclark wrote: 2 weeks ago There is not a lot of crime where I live. Some though, not a lot. There are just small crimes, like a GPS map stolen. Things like that.

That said, the town next to me has a lot more crime.

Added in 1 minute 31 seconds:


Do you think he will just walk away quietly?

The number of Republicans voting Democrat is very surprising. It was GOP women who left Trump, and voted Democratic in 2018.

Now the white male vote is going Democratic, because of the Covid19 response. It's very strange. Trump always finds some way
to win though.
I'm not confident predicting election and post-election results.

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China's coronavirus

#25279

Post by rclark » 2 weeks ago

nameless wrote: 2 weeks ago The problem is that the idiots who won't wear masks and won't social distance will prevent the USA from reducing the disease enough to support the effort to beat the disease. If you look at the countries that are beating the disease it's the countries that brought down the frequency of disease transmission and kept it down by social distancing and wearing masks. It's the MAGA Trumpers. They're helping the disease spread and keeping it powerful in the US with their bullshit.
That's very true. Not only did Trump require them to sign papers before coming to his conventions, he has actually cancelled his
state conventions.

There must have been a lot of deaths. Some people don't care. I took a small vacation, and while I was out, I saw families with young
kids, nobody even wore a mask. Ninety percent of people did though.

If they haven't figure it out by now, they never will.

It's interesting that Trump doesn't want to "impose" on people's liberties, and make them wear masks. On the other hand, he is
completely the opposite when it comes to opening schools, which could infect hundreds of thousands. He doesn't mind forcing
schools to open, just people wearing masks.

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#25290

Post by blackg » 1 week ago

Bob Dole 2020.
Straight outta Del Boca Vista!

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#25298

Post by Wire » 1 week ago

Guest-4 wrote: 2 weeks ago Getting to "herd immunity", even if it were possible, would require at least 2.5 million deaths.
Reason for this 2.5M number?

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#25299

Post by Guest-4 » 1 week ago

Wire wrote: 1 week ago Reason for this 2.5M number?
It's a strict lower bound.

The R0 of coronavirus is 3, which means that herd immunity would require 67% of people to be infected. That means 220 million Americans need to be infected. Estimates of the death rate from coronavirus vary, but the infection fatality rate for New York City has been estimated as being 1.4%. So that means that 3.07 million Americans would die.

In practice:
- R0 would increase without a quarantine;
- There is the possibility of reinfection, as for some people the antibodies are short lived, just like with the common cold that you can get multiple times a few months apart.
- The health care system can't handle that many cases and would collapse, and thus the infection-fatality rate would surge past the present number of 1.4%.

Edited to add: If the rest of the country smokes more, is fatter, and is older than New York City than that infection fatality rate would be greater than 1.4%. I don't know if that's the case.

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#25304

Post by Wire » 1 week ago

Guest-4 wrote: 1 week ago It's a strict lower bound.

The R0 of coronavirus is 3, which means that herd immunity would require 67% of people to be infected. That means 220 million Americans need to be infected. Estimates of the death rate from coronavirus vary, but the infection fatality rate for New York City has been estimated as being 1.4%. So that means that 3.07 million Americans would die.

In practice:
- R0 would increase without a quarantine;
- There is the possibility of reinfection, as for some people the antibodies are short lived, just like with the common cold that you can get multiple times a few months apart.
- The health care system can't handle that many cases and would collapse, and thus the infection-fatality rate would surge past the present number of 1.4%.

Edited to add: If the rest of the country smokes more, is fatter, and is older than New York City than that infection fatality rate would be greater than 1.4%. I don't know if that's the case.
https://www.the-scientist.com/features/ ... read-67690

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#25311

Post by Guest-4 » 1 week ago

I'm aware of that.

Re, the lower number, is the value achieved with a quarantine, with masks, with schools closed, with people working from home, with flying reduced, and with social distancing.

My post was an estimate of how many would die with a libertarian approach, and that's about 3 million. Note that we pretty much do that with the flu every year, and it typically Killa 50,000-100,000 Americans.

I assumed an R0 of 3. There have been many estimates between 1.50 and 6.00, approximately, so I'm comfortable assuming 3. If you put in "2", the number would drop from 3 million to 2.25 million.

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Post by yettee » 1 week ago

Guest-4 wrote: 1 week ago If the rest of the country smokes more, is fatter, and is older than New York City than that infection fatality rate would be greater than 1.4%. I don't know if that's the case.
It's fatter.
Guest-4 wrote: 2 weeks ago I'm not confident predicting election and post-election results.
While of course anything can happen, I think he'll lose, badly. And as much as he'll want to skirt around it post-election, I think he'll have very few allies in that. The bad reaction he got yesterday from his own party after floating the idea of postponing the election (lol) is evidence of that.

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#25317

Post by Wire » 1 week ago

Guest-4 wrote: 1 week ago but the infection fatality rate for New York City has been estimated as being 1.4%. So that means that 3.07 million Americans would die.
New York is not typical

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07- ... ricky.html

IFR is significantly lower than 1.4%

Re is lower than 2 (without shutdown, but with masks and public awareness.

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Post by rclark » 1 week ago

This is how politically divided over the virus the United States is:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/congressiona ... 55630.html

A lot of Republicans think it's a complete joke.

Maybe they engineered the virus to kill Democrats? :?

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#25321

Post by Guest-4 » 1 week ago

Wire wrote: 1 week ago New York is not typical

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-07- ... ricky.html

IFR is significantly lower than 1.4%

Re is lower than 2 (without shutdown, but with masks and public awareness.
I think that you're missing the point that I was originally making, and thus unintentionally shifting the goal posts.

The question of how many Americans would die with incomplete shutdowns that vary from state to state, with some people wearing masks, with awareness for the public being available for members of the public who are willing to listen, is not a question that I'm interested in resolving. That's because it is already resolved. The answer is 156,000 dead Americans and counting. It can be found with a single Google click.

What I was discussing was how many might have died had the country taken a libertarian approach, which it effectively does every single year for the flu. In that case, I estimated the fatality count as at least 3 million.

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Post by Wire » 1 week ago

Guest-4 wrote: 1 week ago I think that you're missing the point that I was originally making, and thus unintentionally shifting the goal posts.

The question of how many Americans would die with incomplete shutdowns that vary from state to state, with some people wearing masks, with awareness for the public being available for members of the public who are willing to listen, is not a question that I'm interested in resolving. That's because it is already resolved. The answer is 156,000 dead Americans and counting. It can be found with a single Google click.

What I was discussing was how many might have died had the country taken a libertarian approach, which it effectively does every single year for the flu. In that case, I estimated the fatality count as at least 3 million.
Your first statement was Getting to "herd immunity", even if it were possible, would require at least 2.5 million deaths.
I'm countering that. Herd immunity does not mean take a libertarian approach, as you are now stating.

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#25325

Post by Guest-4 » 1 week ago

Wire wrote: 1 week ago Your first statement was Getting to "herd immunity", even if it were possible, would require at least 2.5 million deaths.
I'm countering that. Herd immunity does not mean take a libertarian approach, as you are now stating.
The hypothetical outcome of herd immunity is used to suggest a path back to normalcy. Not one where half the population is still wearing masks and that half of businesses are still closed.

Without social distancing, etc, R0 (not RE) is in the range of 2 to 4, which means that herd immunity would require most of the population to be immune. That's necessarily a lot of deaths.

In contrast, do you know what fraction of the population you need to get sick in order to achieve herd immunity with a perfect quarantine?

0%.

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Post by Wire » 1 week ago

Guest-4 wrote: 1 week ago The hypothetical outcome of herd immunity is used to suggest a path back to normalcy. Not one where half the population is still wearing masks and that half of businesses are still closed.

Without social distancing, etc, R0 (not RE) is in the range of 2 to 4, which means that herd immunity would require most of the population to be immune. That's necessarily a lot of deaths.

In contrast, do you know what fraction of the population you need to get sick in order to achieve herd immunity with a perfect quarantine?

0%.
Mask wearing IS consistent with a path back to normalcy. The path itself may not be normal (masks required), but the end outcome is the same.
What masks and sane physical distancing will do is to reduce the Re during the path to normalcy.

A perfect quarantine is not feasible outside of China.

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