Climate change and what we should do about it

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Grasshopper
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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by Grasshopper » 9 months ago

Admin wrote:
9 months ago
There's a big difference between spending a trillion dollars foe preventive measures that are almost certain not to do anything due to the extremely limited capacity we have to predict the future in any reliable manner and effecticely spend that money to move people when and if the sea levels ever rise to the point that the coasts get flooded.
There is a misconception, because scientists work in probability. They will say there is a high probability of modest sea rise and low probability of dramatic sea rise, but we are not sure.

But apart from accessing risk that is projected so far into the future, for me there is a completely different scenario.


At the beginning of the nuclear age we had to start huge investments and we gained tremendously. That every single household machine is running on electricity is only possible because of the huge price drop through nuclear power.

Now we stand at the same point again. Once we have done the investment in electric cars, power lines, wind turbines and gas powerplants, energy will be much cheaper.

Right now renewable is expensive because of the cost of transition. Already today nobody invests into nuclear in America, because they most likely won't keep up with wind and solar.

Only China and Japan are building nuclear reactors, but at the same time China went up to 36% renewables in installed electric power, overtaking Germany.

And the main reason is not to save the planet but for strategic energy security reasons.
It's simple to block oil and uranium supply but virtually impossible to damage a decentralised wind power network.


China will leave the US behind, having a mature wind and solar market with huge economy of scale savings before the US even wakes up. And once you have economy of scale in wind turbine installation, we can burn energy like hell, because it's nearly free and won't impact the planet anyway.
And in case you really have no wind for a week, you power up expensive gas plants, it won't matter in the big picture.

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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by Afro_Vacancy » 9 months ago

Admin wrote:
9 months ago
There's a big difference between spending a trillion dollars foe preventive measures that are almost certain not to do anything due to the extremely limited capacity we have to predict the future in any reliable manner and effecticely spend that money to move people when and if the sea levels ever rise to the point that the coasts get flooded.
In this case an ounce of prevention is likely worth a pound of cure. It would be much better to simply not have to relocate those other people, that would cost untold trillions of dollars. It costs a huge amount of money to build cities -- they are in fact built over centuries or millennia.

To the best of my knowledge, a significant sea level rise is the worst case scenario for global warming. The socio-economic and cultural damage of relocating all of those people would be on par with a sub-armageddon scale limited nuclear war. Let us hope that it does not get that.

Added in 58 seconds:
Grasshopper wrote:
9 months ago
There is a misconception, because scientists work in probability. They will say there is a high probability of modest sea rise and low probability of dramatic sea rise, but we are not sure.

But apart from accessing risk that is projected so far into the future, for me there is a completely different scenario.


At the beginning of the nuclear age we had to start huge investments and we gained tremendously. That every single household machine is running on electricity is only possible because of the huge price drop through nuclear power.

Now we stand at the same point again. Once we have done the investment in electric cars, power lines, wind turbines and gas powerplants, energy will be much cheaper.

Right now renewable is expensive because of the cost of transition. Already today nobody invests into nuclear in America, because they most likely won't keep up with wind and solar.

Only China and Japan are building nuclear reactors, but at the same time China went up to 36% renewables in installed electric power, overtaking Germany.

And the main reason is not to save the planet but for strategic energy security reasons.
It's simple to block oil and uranium supply but virtually impossible to damage a decentralised wind power network.


China will leave the US behind, having a mature wind and solar market with huge economy of scale savings before the US even wakes up. And once you have economy of scale in wind turbine installation, we can burn energy like hell, because it's nearly free and won't impact the planet anyway.
And in case you really have no wind for a week, you power up expensive gas plants, it won't matter in the big picture.
The west's fears of nuclear power are largely irrational in my opinion.
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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by blackg » 9 months ago

Afro_Vacancy wrote:
9 months ago
In this case an ounce of prevention is likely worth a pound of cure. It would be much better to simply not have to relocate those other people, that would cost untold trillions of dollars. It costs a huge amount of money to build cities -- they are in fact built over centuries or millennia.

To the best of my knowledge, a significant sea level rise is the worst case scenario for global warming. The socio-economic and cultural damage of relocating all of those people would be on par with a sub-armageddon scale limited nuclear war. Let us hope that it does not get that.
Except hundreds of thousands wouldn't be dying from nuclear fallout.

Also, I agree with you about the West's nuclear power fears. We have sufficient safety checks in the Western countries that use nuclear power.
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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by Grasshopper » 9 months ago

I just saw that I had already written the same stuff some time ago and was corrected.
JLBB wrote:
9 months ago
You're an idiot that doesn't understand opportunity cost or a basic cost/benefit analysis then. Its indisputable that we could invest in renovating an entire energy grid with modern fossil fuel plants and cut more emissions and save more money than the maximum amount of viable wind/solar power.
..
Except there has been virtually no improvement in renewable energy production in a decade regarding viable pricing and stability for a viable economy with successful mass emissions cuts.
The improvement is that we finally have intelligent grid technology to actually support large scale (fluctuating) renewable energy. Energy sinks like fridges, washing machines and car batteries will draw more power when power is available, correcting for fluctuations.

Wind turbine blades are still hand made, this will be automated in the next few years. Also huge technology change.

JLBB wrote:
9 months ago
This is despite the fact that in most Western countries relatively and literally renewables get significantly more subsidies than fossil fuels
Total subsidies in fossil fuels is still higher. You underestimate how much subsidies go into any kind of energy generation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_subsidies

JLBB wrote:
9 months ago
"In the long run, renewables will be almost free, because they actually don't need any fuel to generate electricity."

Not even a basic fucking understanding of how renewable energy works. Renewable refers to the source, not the means of production. We aren't talking about a magical pizza, sunshine, rainbows and free energy tree here, this is the real world.
Renewables will reach grid parity in China in 2022. Meaning that without subsidies they are as cheap as fossil/coal.

Producing wind turbines and solar panels gets cheaper with scale and we are just at the beginning of mass producing them.
Once the economy of scale hits the is no way for fossil to keep up in the long run.

As with any technology it pays to be first. So I suggest investing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewab ... y_in_China (search parity)

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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by nameless » 3 months ago

Extremists are even seen as extreme within their own party:

Hey @That Guy, the younger and more recently educated conservatives are saying more and more that guys like you are wrong on climate change. So when it comes to climate change your argument isn't just with me. Your argument is also with younger, smarter, and more recently educated CONSERVATIVES, of all people. Older conservatives with older educations still say that climate change is a hoax or it isn't man-made, but new conservatives who are more recently educated with updated facts, are taking issue with that uninformed and illogical thinking.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... ailsignout

And the hits just keep coming:

This hit is brought to you by That Guy and it's called, "A Giant Antarctic Shelf Will Soon Split In Two".

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/science ... ailsignout

One last hit before I call it a day:

Here's another That Guy Special.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weather/ ... ailsignout
Last edited by nameless 3 months ago, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by blackg » 3 months ago

I believe in man made climate change. I just don't believe in the catastrophic predictions made by the screaming banshees of global warming.
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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by nameless » 3 months ago

blackg wrote:
3 months ago
I believe in man made climate change. I just don't believe in the catastrophic predictions made by the screaming banshees of global warming.
You will believe in it in the not too distant future. And it's a sign that you're not as intelligent as you think you are since there is already sufficient evidence out there establishing that the catastrophic predictions are starting to show up in reality. Read about rising seas in Southern Florida. Here read this:

https://www.businessinsider.com/miami-f ... ons-2018-4

Added in 46 minutes 50 seconds:
The thing about global warming and rising seas is that a lot of the damage is already locked in. In other words, future sea level rise will happen no matter what we do. The reason for this is that the atmosphere is loaded with enough green-house gasses to keep the process going for another 25 years even if we went 100% green today. And last I heard there is no way to get those gasses out of the atmosphere. And in the not-too-distant-future when a chunk of South Florida is literally underwater and sea levels are still rising, That Guy and blackg will be blaming democrats or *other republicans* for the mess we'll be in. The'll swear it was other people, not them, who were calling global warming and rising seas a hoax. They'll tell the world (especially women) they always supported measures to prevent global warming and sea level rise because they'll think that will make them sound cool and smart, especially with the women. The last estimate I heard is that there's 25 years of Greenhouse gasses already in the atmosphere to keep warming the planet for another 25 years or so. So at the point when That Guy and Blackg see South Florida partially under water and they start screaming, "Hey, we told you all so. You all should have listened to us. Now we're in a real pickle and everyone better listen to That Guy and me (blackg) so we can fix this mess that the democrats and a couple bad republicans created.

And there's some evidence that the rising seas aren't just rising, the rate at which the're rising may also be increasing.

What this means is that by the time blackg and That Guy figure out that they're wrong we will be locked into considerable damage to Florida and perhaps other states.

Ignorance is dangerous.

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Re: Climate change and what we should do about it

Post by Admin » 1 month ago

So our media is publishing articles calling for violence. Because what sacrifice would be too great to save our Great Mother the Planet, right?

https://translate.google.be/translate?h ... 5f6433dac7

And at the same time, some of the climate protesters themselves are resorting to violence:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/ ... s-movement

Image

As if it was not the next logical step for the climate activists.
"Along the way some boys started making fun of him by shouting, “Go away, baldy! Get out of here!” Elisha turned around and stared at the boys. Then he cursed them in the name of the Lord. At once two bears ran out of the woods and ripped to pieces 42 of the boys." - 2 Kings 23-24

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